We would not be able to build definite scenarios until more polls are out, but Datanálisis is the first firm to publish reports after President Chávez announced he has a cancer that will require medical treatment.
According to pollster Datanálisis (with fieldwork closing July 4th), the illness of President Chávez has had no impact on his popularity, which remains at 50%. However, the percentage stating that Chávez must leave office in 2012 has increased to 64%. Only 27% said the President should continue in power (hard core vote).
Regarding the opposition, the study shows Henrique Capriles Radonski, the Governor of Miranda, leading the primaries with 49.9%; followed by the Governor of Zulia , Pablo Perez 11.6%, 9.3% for Leopoldo Lopez (VP); Manuel Rosales (UNT) at 8.8%. Antonio Ledezma (ABP) and Maria Corina Machado (Ind) stand with 3.9% and 2.9%, respectively.
If presidential elections were next Sunday, using a generic ballot question 31.7% of Venezuelans show support for Chávez, and 34.9% would support “the opposition candidate”.
However, polarized scenarios show the following data:
- Chávez 39% vs. Capriles Radonski 37%.
- Chávez 39% vs. Lopez 32%
- Chávez 40.4% vs. Pablo Perez 27.9%
Other opposition candidates do not exceed 21% in the polarized scenarios. In all the polarized scenarios those who declare themselves neutral or undecided represent a significant percentage at this point.
With regard to party or political affiliation, 30.7% consider themselves Chavistas, while 26.3% describe themselves as opponents, with 39.7% declaring to be "neutral". Among the neutral, 6 out of 10 have a negative evaluation of the government of Hugo Chavez. Pondering the voting intentions among the neutrals, Henrique Capriles Radonski (Gov. of Miranda) comes out with the is best position to capitalize this audience with 22.1% against President Chavez at 9.4%